TRC Nexus guide to down ballot races

Thank you for joining us this Saturday morning.

Early voting starts Thursday, and we compiled information and analysis on the election all in one place. Feel free to forward to contacts in your networks.  

Below, you’ll find information about the potential impact of lower turnout in western North Carolina; descriptions of Council of State races and candidates; and discussion of the constitutional amendment on the ballot.

Western North Carolina
The State Board of Elections and the General Assembly have acted on emergency voting protocols in the impacted counties.

Many of you have asked what impact lower turnout might have on statewide races. This is an inexact science, but this exercise offers a rough in-the-ballpark estimation.

Buncombe and the 14 counties surrounding it* delivered a +64,000 vote margin to Trump in 2020. He won the state by 74,000 votes. So, hypothetically, every 10% drop in turnout in those 15 counties would have cost Trump 6,400 votes in 2020.

*See a list of counties in this exercise at the bottom.

Voting Information

• Click here to look up your voter registration, Election Day polling location, and view your sample ballot.
• The last day to register to vote in North Carolina is Oct. 13, except for same-day registration at early voting sites.
• Early voting starts Oct. 17 and ends Nov. 2 at 3:00 p.m.

Council of State Races
Voters will decide on 10 statewide elected officials. A historic seven of those races are open seats. All campaign bios are taken directly from candidate websites with minor edits for brevity.

Attorney General
In June, we wrote a Saturday piece explaining how the attorney general’s office impacts the business community. In summary, the attorney general sets the tone for the legal climate around the state, defends state laws in court, and litigates against corporations and federal agencies on occasion.

• Rep. Dan Bishop (R) | Campaign Website
• Dan was born and raised in North Carolina. He comes from a large family of 5 children. His parents, Kaytee and Bud, came from modest backgrounds, but pushed all their children to strive for educational success and a strong work ethic. Dan has been happily married to his wife Jo, a partner in everything he does, for 25 years. They are blessed to be the parents of their son, Jack, who is currently pursuing a law degree. He was a commercial litigator for nearly three decades and voted to Business NC’s “Legal Elite” 10 times.
   
• Rep. Jeff Jackson (D) | Campaign Website
• As a veteran who served in Afghanistan, a former assistant district attorney, and a current member of the Army National Guard, Jeff has dedicated his life to public service.
• Notable headlines: 
  • The Center Square | Jackson, Bishop only U.S. House members in state level duel
  • The Charlotte Observer | NC’s Rep. Jeff Jackson apologize for TikTok video– but not his vote to force sale

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Commissioner of Labor
In September 2023, we wrote about the importance of the Labor Commissioner to the North Carolina business community. This position impacts nearly every employer in North Carolina as it works to enforce safety and labor laws.

• Luke Farley (R) | Campaign Website
• Luke Farley is a Christian, husband, father, conservative, and patriot. He grew up in North Carolina, went to school here, and is raising his family here. He wants North Carolina to be the safest place to work and the best place to do business in the country. He’ll fight every day for worker safety, common sense regulation, and cutting red tape.
   
• Braxton Winston (D) | Campaign Website
• Braxton Winston II was born in Camp Lejeune, N.C., where his father was stationed in the U.S. Marine Corps. As the child of a Marine and a school teacher, the values of education, public service, and a strong work ethic were ingrained in Braxton at an early age. After graduating from Phillips Academy Andover and Davidson College, he became a union stagehand and a member of our region’s robust sports television and entertainment production community. Braxton served as a Charlotte City Council At-Large member from 2017-2023 and served as Mayor Pro Tem. Braxton learned during his tenure that communities thrive when their workforces thrive. 
   
• Notable Headlines: 
  • Business NC | Farley, Winston offer contrast in labor commissioner race

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Commissioner of Agriculture
This May, TRC Nexus covered the importance of the Agriculture Commissioner for the broader North Carolina business community. The Commissioner helps regulate the vast agriculture industry and has an important consumer protection role.

• Commissioner Steve Troxler (R) | Campaign Website
• Agriculture Commissioner Steve Troxler was raised in the Guilford County community of Browns Summit and has spent his entire career in agriculture as founder, owner and operator of Troxler Farms. Over the years, the family-owned farm has produced tobacco, wheat, vegetables and soybeans. Since taking office in 2005, Troxler has focused on developing new markets for N.C. farm products, preserving working farms and protecting the state’s food supply.
   
• Sarah Taber (D) | Campaign Website
• Sarah Taber’s roots in agriculture run deep. Born to a military family, she helped operate her family’s small holdings and took field, garment shop, and factory jobs to pay for school. At a young age, Sarah learned that romanticizing farms doesn’t put food on the table. Agriculture has to be a viable livelihood or it’s just not worth doing.  In the years since, Sarah has made a career of bringing new people into agriculture and helping farm businesses grow. Now, she’s on a mission to help North Carolina put our countryside to work and grow our economy as our next Commissioner of Agriculture. 
   
• Notable Headlines: 
  • New York Intelligencer | American Loves the Idea of Family Farms. That’s Unfortunate. By: Sarah Taber

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State Treasurer
Two weeks ago, we covered the importance of the state treasurer race to the North Carolina business community. The treasurer plays a vital role in making sure the state pension fund is well managed and other state benefits are appropriate curated.

• Brad Briner (R) | Campaign Website
• I was born in Dallas, TX and grew up there as the youngest of four boys. The constants in our lives were our family, our church, and being outdoors. All four of us were Eagle Scouts and the Boy Scouts had an important influence on my life – I still believe in living by the Scout Law: being trustworthy, loyal, helpful, friendly, courteous, kind, obedient, cheerful, thrifty, brave, clean, and reverent!
  In late 2011, I got a phone call from a recruiter about helping to build Willett Advisors.  The scale of the asset base and the autonomy were incomparable so I joined the firm with the condition that I could remain in North Carolina. I rose to become one of the heads of the firm and we experienced very strong investment results.
   
• Wesley Harris (D) | Campaign website
• Wesley Harris spent the first years of his life in Taylorsville, nestled within the gentle slopes of the Brushy Mountains. It was a chaotic household, growing up as the youngest of four—just like any big family, but the Harrises were blessed with opportunities that allowed Wesley and his sister to dream big. His mother was a lifelong public school teacher and his father was a local banker. They taught Wesley and his sisters the value of hard work, a good education, and family. More than that, he learned early on how government can be a force for good in our communities when it invests in their success.
• Notable Headlines:
  • WCNC | NC treasurer candidates agree state pension plan is underperforming
  • Business NC | State treasurer candidate Harris doesn’t own stocks, real estate topping 10k

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State Supreme Court
North Carolina has four statewide judicial races this year, one for the Supreme Court and three for the State Court of Appeals. Republicans currently have a 5-2 majority on the Supreme Court

• Judge Jefferson Griffin (R)  | Campaign Website
• Judge Griffin was born and raised on a farm in Red Oak, North Carolina in Nash County. He was captain of his high school football team at Northern Nash High School. He graduated from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill in 2003. After graduating from UNC, Judge Griffin earned his United States Coast Guard Captain’s license and worked as a charter fisherman on the North Carolina coast.
   
• Justice Allison Riggs (D)  | Campaign Website
• After law school, I spent 14 years as a civil rights and voting rights attorney at the Southern Coalition for Social Justice in Durham, North Carolina, eventually serving as the Co-Executive Director for Programs and Chief Counsel for Voting Rights. I worked with communities across the South to advocate for fair elections and safe and healthy environments. I had the privilege of arguing before the U.S. Supreme Court twice in landmark redistricting cases.
  Governor Cooper appointed me to the Court of Appeals in 2023, and then to the North Carolina Supreme Court. On the Supreme Court, I’m proud to approach all the cases that have and will come before me with thoughtfulness, compassion, and a commitment to the rule of law. The Supreme Court deals with cases ranging from criminal law to family law to business law.

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Superintendent of Public Instruction
As we have previously covered, North Carolina’s Superintendent of Public Instruction is fairly limited in its power to enact broad education policy changes; most of that comes from the State Board of Education. The superintendent largely advocates for the public school system and operates the Department of Public Instruction.

• Michelle Morrow (R) | Campaign Website
• Michele is a product of North Carolina’s public schools. She is a proud UNC-Chapel Hill graduate. As a nurse, Michele has cared for families in some of the most rural counties in the U.S. and the poorest communities in Central and South America. During the last decade, she has taught high schoolers civics, history, science, and English in parent-led micro-schools. Micro schools are a “mid-point” between traditional schooling and homeschooling. As Superintendent, Michele’s background in service and teaching will be crucial to returning our schools to places of safety and academic excellence that will restore NC’s educational promise to every family.
   
• Mo Green (D) | Campaign Website
• Mo served more than seven years as superintendent of Guilford County Schools – the third largest district in North Carolina with more than 70,000 students. While Superintendent, Mo earned many accolades for his innovative leadership and reforms. GCS garnered state and national recognitions for improved academic performance, increased graduation rates, and character development/service learning. Today, GCS has some of the best schools in the state and the country. After leaving GCS, Mo served as the executive director of the Z. Smith Reynolds Foundation, a major North Carolina foundation that supports various causes including public education, from 2016-2023. When Mo retired from ZSR in 2023, it honored him with a $425,000 grant to fund college scholarships for graduates of Guilford County Schools.
• Notable Headlines:
  • CNN | GOP nominee to run North Carolina public schools called for violence against Democrats, including executing Obama and Biden

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State Auditor
TRC Nexus published a piece this April explaining what the State Auditor does. The Auditor plays a vital role as a watchdog for taxpayer funds but is limited in regulating businesses across the state compared to other Council of State positions.

• Dave Boliek (R)  | Campaign Website
• As a former prosecutor, Dave has the expertise to find and root out government corruption. Dave is the most experienced candidate. He is the only candidate who has run a small business. As Chairman of the UNC Board of Trustees Dave created the university’s first Audit Committee, balanced the budget, and eliminated the university’s operating deficit for the first time in years.‌
  While board chairman, Dave led the fight at UNC to eliminate woke diversity and equity policies and create a new School of Civic Life and Leadership to help bring ideological balance to the notoriously liberal campus.
   
• Jessica Holmes (D) | Campaign Website
• In November 2014, Wake County voters made history by electing me as the youngest Commissioner ever elected in Wake County. I represented over one million constituents at-large and helped manage a $1.1 billion budget, later becoming the youngest person to serve as Chair of the board.
  As a County Commissioner, I championed job creation, workforce development, increased education funding, affordable housing and childcare, food security initiatives, living wages and family oriented policies such as paid parental leave and paid family leave.
  In August 2021, I was appointed as a Deputy Commissioner in the North Carolina Industrial Commission, where I administered the Workers’ Compensation Act and Tort Claims Act and ensured that all parties were treated fairly and equitably under the law.
• Notable Headlines:
  • WRAL | ‘No resentment’: Ex-Auditor Wood pans incumbent Holmes, endorses GOP’s Boliek in NC auditor race

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Lieutenant Governor
The Lieutenant Governor sits on various state boards and presides over the North Carolina Senate, where he has no vote except when there’s a tie. The Lieutenant Governor has a bully pulpit and occasionally serves as acting governor, but the office has no significant regulatory role impacting North Carolina businesses.

• Hal Weatherman (R) | Campaign Website
  I am a husband, father of three, and the Republican nominee for the office of Lieutenant Governor. A native of North Carolina, I received my undergraduate degree from Wake Forest University and my Master’s Degree from Wheaton College. I am the founder and President of the Electoral Education Foundation, a 501-c3 nonprofit organization dedicated to advancing election integrity efforts in North Carolina. I served as Chief of Staff to former North Carolina Lt. Governor Dan Forest and former US Representative Sue Myrick. I am a published author and have advised many Conservative candidates and campaigns over the last three decades. I am open about my Christian faith, my love for my family and my call to serve others.

• Rachel Hunt (D) | Campaign Website
  Senator Rachel Hunt is an attorney and a mom. She spent the first part of her legal career working for women and children, defending them in court when no one else could. When she got married and had kids, she spent her spare time volunteering to protect the public school system that would shape her kid’s future. When they grew up, she ran for public office, beating a four-term incumbent in the NC House under gerrymandered maps – and she hasn’t stopped fighting since. Over the five years since she was first elected, she’s seen how the Trump Republicans have ruled with little accountability to the people of North Carolina. She’s seen first-hand how far we’ve fallen from the North Carolina that her parents, former Gov. Jim and Carolyn Hunt envisioned.

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Insurance Commissioner
The Insurance Commissioner oversees insurance products across North Carolina and helps set insurance rates across the state.

• Mike Causey (R) | Campaign Website
  North Carolina Insurance Commissioner Mike Causey is a successful businessman with more than 25 years in the insurance industry – as an agent, manager, supervisor and agency owner. He is a veteran of the U.S. Army where he served as a military policeman and played trombone in the Army band.
   
• Natasha Marcus (D) | Campaign Website
  Natasha Marcus is a three-term State Senator, currently serving on the Senate Commerce & Insurance, Judiciary, Education, Budget and Election & Redistricting Committees. She is a former litigation attorney and earned her undergraduate degree in Public Policy and a law degree. She is the mother of two adult children, the mother in law of a Naval officer, and lives in Davidson. She is the Democratic Nominee for North Carolina Commissioner of Insurance.
• Notable Headlines:
  • NC Assembly | Mike Causey Under Fire

***
Secretary of State
Unlike in other states, North Carolina’s Secretary of State does not oversee elections in North Carolina. Instead, the office focuses on business filings and other documentation efforts by the state. 

• Chad Brown (R) | Campaign Website
• I’m Chad Brown. A Christian, former professional baseball player, and lifelong conservative Republican who found my way into politics by being elected as the Mayor of Stanley, and then on to the County Commission. I’ve served 3 terms (12 years total), with the last 2 years as Chairman. I rely on my Christian values to help guide my way through political issues. I grew up in Gastonia, NC, in Gaston County, where hard work and strong family values were a staple in my home. My first love was Baseball but once that was over, my true love was politics. I like to think my calling here is to fight for the common person to help give them some direction through a cumbersome government. Working in economic development and being involved in many other facets of local government has groomed me to want more. I’ve taken a proud stance for the unborn! I’ve fought for issues where my vote cannot be swayed and proud to cast the lone vote for my beliefs. I’m a member of Flint Groves Baptist Church

• Elaine Marshal (D)  | Campaign Website
• In 1996, Elaine Marshall became the first woman elected to a statewide executive branch office in North Carolina. She immediately established herself as a competent administrator with an eye toward reform. She has received national recognitions for modernizing the Secretary of State’s office by introducing up to date technology and reducing red tape.
  Since taking office, Elaine has cut the costs of doing business in North Carolina—helping small businesses create jobs and enabling free enterprise and capital formation. She has led the effort to reform North Carolina’s lobbying laws. Elaine remains committed to making public information transparent and accessible to businesses, investors and individuals. Her efforts have helped make North Carolina one of the most affordable places in the United States to do business.

Constitutional Amendment
Voters will decide on a proposed constitutional amendment to clarify that only U.S. citizens can vote in North Carolina. Proponents assert the state Constitution is unclear on this point; opponents assert the amendment is unnecessary.

We hope you found this information helpful as you consider which candidates to support and how they might impact the business community.

Please feel free to send this to those within your network and encourage them to subscribe to TRC Nexus.

*Counties included in the western NC turnout exercise: Alleghany, Ashe, Avery, Buncombe, Burke, Haywood, Henderson, Madison, McDowell, Mitchell, Polk, Rutherford, Transylvania, Watauga, Yancey.