The 2026 NC Primary Recap with Analysis

From the Desk of Mike Rusher

Happy post-election Saturday, and thank you for joining us. A little over two months ago, we shared our “2026 Political Preview” with you, and just three weeks ago, we shared with you our “2026 Primary Primer,” previewing some of the key races to watch this past Tuesday.  Today, it’s time to follow up on those pieces with results, observations, and an initial look at November. 

Section by section below, we examine the U.S. Senate race, key U.S. House contests, legislative and judicial primaries, and conclude with a preview of the legislative races to watch this November.

Let’s dive in. 

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U.S. Senate (open seat)

As expected, Democrat Roy Cooper and Republican Michael Whatley cruised through their respective primaries and will face one another in the November contest to replace retiring Sen. Thom Tillis.

Cook Political Report rates the race as a toss-up, but Cooper has held a lead in every public poll listed by RealClearPolitics since summer 2025, less one where they were tied. Most observers view the race as an uphill climb for Whatley, and Kalshi (a prediction market) currently gives Cooper an 80% chance of winning.

Congressional Districts: There are three to discuss today, and two to watch in November.

First up, CD-1 (incumbent: Democrat Don Davis)
Republican Laurie Buckhout entered Tuesday as the slight favorite. She was ahead in an Emerson College poll by four points and held a cash advantage over her rivals. Indeed, Buckhout won the five-way contest with 39%, beating runner-up Asa Buck by five points.

Buckhout narrowly lost to Rep. Don Davis in 2024, but two things have changed since then, with opposite effects. One, state legislators redrew the district to favor Republicans (Trump won the new district by about 10 points). Two, the political environment has soured for Republicans in the past 15 months, and it may get worse by November.

We’ve seen much discussion of how this is a toss-up race, but the story is in the data. Trump beat Harris by 11.6% in this newly drawn district, but the previous iteration of this district (when Buckhout ran against Davis last cycle) gave Trump just a 3.2% win margin.  Buckhout lost by just 1.7% (6,300 votes) in 2024 when the district was far less “red”. This is a lean Republican district and will be the top national pickup target for Republicans this year.

Congressional District 4 (incumbent: Democrat Valerie Foushee)
Millions of dollars poured into this close primary race between Rep. Valerie Foushee and challenger Nida Allam, who narrowly lost to Foushee in the 2024 primary, too. Foushee squeaked out a win this time by less than 1%.

The contest in some ways defines the fissures in the Democratic Party: Foushee, a Black Democrat who served in the state Senate before going to Congress, versus a young socialist challenger from Durham. The seat is a Safe Democratic seat. 

The dynamics in this race parallel legislative outcomes for the Democratic Party, that we’ll examine below.

Congressional District 11 (incumbent: Republican Chuck Edwards)
Even though Republican Rep.Chuck Edwards faced a well-funded primary challenger in Adam Smith, Edwards cruised to reelection by a 40-point margin with backing from President Donald Trump.

On the Democratic side, party favorite Jamie Ager held a major cash advantage over his opponents. As expected, he won the five-way primary with 65% of the vote.

National Democrats hope to steal this seat if the environment continues to deteriorate for Republicans, though that may be a stretch. Trump won the district by 9.5%, and though Edwards is a well-known, two-term incumbent, his opponent Jamie Ager is a fourth-generation farmer who is well known in the region and well funded. This is a lean Republican seat and will be watched perhaps as closely as the eastern district. 

Legislative districts: A tough night for incumbents.

Senate District 26 (incumbent: Republican Phil Berger)
The contest between Senate Leader Phil Berger and Rockingham County Sheriff Sam Page may go down as the most expensive state legislative race in North Carolina history. As anyone paying attention to politics knows by now, just two votes separated the candidates on election night. Rockingham County heavily favored Page (67-33) while Guilford County heavily favored Berger (68-32).

The contest will almost certainly go to a recount and may see a lengthy legal battle. Over the past few days, both campaigns have been tracking down voters who cast provisional ballots to press them to “cure” those ballots so they can be officially counted. Elections officials have reported to state investigators that Democrat-affiliated organizations have interfered with the process in order to help the Page campaign. 

It seems likely that just a few dozen votes will determine the winner when the dust settles. The impact of a Berger loss would be momentous. It could reshape the political power structure that has existed in North Carolina for almost a generation, and inject uncertainty into the policy foundation for North Carolina’s 15-year rise.

After provisional ballots (people who vote in wrong precinct, vote twice, vote wrong party ballot, or are not registered) were considered and counted yesterday afternoon, Page’s two vote lead expanded to 23 votes. 

What is left to count in SD-26? Overseas, military, and cured mail in ballots. Military and overseas ballots postmarked by election day can arrive by March 13 county canvass. The county canvass will finalize the results, pending legal action. 

Senate District 34 (incumbent: Republican Chris Measmer)
Former state House member Kevin Crutchfield defeated Republican Sen. Chris Measmer – who was appointed to his post just last year – by about 1,000 votes, or 7.5%.

When we published our primary primer three weeks ago, we wrote that “neither candidate posted high fundraising totals, and Crutchfield’s cash on hand appears to primarily come from a personal loan.” But since then, news became public that Crutchfield benefited from an infusion of outside spending by the American Conservative Fund, which the Measmer campaign said has ties to gambling interests.

Crutchfield, for his part, said that he hadn’t seen “all these ads that have been put out on my behalf” and that he agreed with some and disagreed with others.

Trump won this district by 8.2%, but because of demographic trends, this seat will be a borderline Lean Republican/Toss-up for November. 

House District 113 (incumbent: Republican Jake Johnson)
Incumbent Rep. Jake Johnson fended off a challenge from former House Majority Leader Mike Hager in this closely-watched primary in western North Carolina. Johnson defeated Hager 61%-39% in a race that could have upended some of the state House’s leadership structure. This is a safe Republican seat in November. 

House District 79 (incumbent: Republican Keith Kidwell)
Rep. Keith Kidwell, who chairs the House Freedom Caucus, lost by five points to primary challenger Darren Armstrong in this high-profile internecine war. Armstrong had backing from the agriculture community, including Agriculture Commissioner Steve Troxler and Rep. Jimmy Dixon. 

Kidwell has been a controversial figure in state politics, but his primary problems largely stemmed from his opposition to agriculture policy favored by Dixon, Troxler, and the agribusiness community – the same policies that parallel a recent executive order from The White House. 

Some say the outcome of this contest may serve as a warning of sorts for incumbents to avoid getting sideways with the state’s agriculture community. There is no Democratic candidate here in November, so Armstrong will be headed to Raleigh in January 2027. 

House District 37 (incumbent: Republican Erin Paré)
Rep. Erin Paré is one of only two Republicans representing Wake County in the legislature, and her purple seat will be a major priority for Democrats in the general election.

She’ll face Winn Decker, who won just over 50% of the vote in this three-way Democratic primary. According to left-leaning IndyWeek, Decker is a “33-year-old education policy strategist,” though WRAL described him previously as a diversity consultant.

House District 110 (incumbent: Republican Kelly Hastings)
Rep. Kelly Hastings, an eight term incumbent and U.S. Marine Corps veteran and Cherryville real estate professional, lost his primary to a political newcomer. At 25 years old, Carolina Eason is a pharmacist from Cleveland County. She is a third-generation pharmacist and works in her family-owned pharmacies serving Cherryville, Vale, and Maiden, continuing a multi-generation family business in rural health care. This 110th NC House district is a Safe Republican seat in November. 

Incumbent Democrats Carla Cunningham, Shelly Willingham, and Nasif Majeed, and an Eastern rematch for Pierce and Wray
All of the first three mentioned above lost to challengers running to their left. Rep. Carla Cunningham earned the ire of the Democratic base because of a vote with Republicans, and an accompanying floor speech, on a bill to require sheriffs to cooperate with ICE. Gov. Josh Stein endorsed her opponent, Rodney Sadler, who won by 48 points.

Likewise, Reps. Shelly Willingham and Nasif Majeed faced blowback from activist organizations over the perception that they were not sufficiently left-wing. Willingham lost to Patricia Smith by 11 points, and Majeed lost to Valeria Levy by 42 points.

In House District 27, incumbent Democrat Rodney Pierce faced a rematch with former Rep. Michael Wray. A similar political dynamic played out in this contest. The governor endorsed Pierce, and Wray previously earned a reputation for negotiating with Republicans during his time in the legislature.

The takeaway? These outcomes serve as a warning of sorts for Democratic incumbents that cross party lines in the NC House. Democratic primary voters do not look favorably upon moderate members of the House caucus, especially when they support overrides of the Democratic Governor. 

Judicial: NC Court of Appeals, Supreme Court
Administrative Law Judge Michael C. Byrne defeated Superior Court Judge Matt Smith for the Republican nomination for NC Court of Appeals by three percentage points. There was interest in this race, as Judge Byrne stacked up grassroots endorsements and Judge Matt Smith was endorsed by NC Supreme Court Chief Justice Paul Newby. There are three appellate court seats up for election this year, and Republicans will be going for full control of the 15 member Court of Appeals. 

The NC Supreme Court seat for Democrat Anita Earls is up for reelection. Though you may not read about it much in the state’s political media, Earls was first elected in 2018 under a previously used plurality election structure for the seat. A Democrat named Chris Anglin changed his party affiliation to Republican in order to split the vote from Republican incumbent Barbara Jackson. The strategy worked – Republicans Anglin and Jackson split 50.5% of the vote with 16.4% and 34.1% respectively, while Earls received 49.6% and the victory. 

In 2026, Justice Earls is challenged by Rep. Sarah Stevens, who chairs the Judiciary, Elections Law and Joint Legislative Administrative Procedure Oversight Committee for the NC House. 

On to November?
Looking forward, regarding the legislative races, there are immediately three toss-up races in the NC Senate and an initial six toss-up races in the NC House that will be getting the lion’s share of attention. The NC Senate Republicans current 30 seat supermajority will be determined through three seats currently held by a Republican. The NC House is one seat shy of a supermajority, and all but lost their “functional super majority” with the losses of three moderate Democrat incumbents. The NC House Republicans are mostly on defense this cycle, with five seats to defend and one pick up opportunity, for starters. 

Here are the Senate races: 

• SD-11: Incumbent Republican Lisa-Stone Barnes, the Nash County native and businesswoman is facing Democrat James Gailliard, the Philadelphia born senior pastor and CEO of Word Tabernacle Church in Rocky Mount. This will most likely be the top targeted NC Senate race. 
• SD-7: Incumbent Republican Michael Lee, an attorney, small-businessman and the Senate Majority Leader is facing Democrat Jessica Bichler, a Yoga studio owner/instructor who says she was inspired to run based on her grandmother’s experiences in Nazi-controlled Austria during World War II. This race should be considered a toss-up heading into the summer. 
• SD-34: Former Rep. Kevin Crutchfield (mentioned above) is facing Democrat April Cook, who co-founded the Lake Norman Community Health Clinic. This race leans Republican on paper, but should be watched closely throughout the summer. 

Here are the House races: 

• HD-35: Wake County’s Republican incumbent Mike Schietzelt is a is a military veteran, attorney and technology professional facing a 2024 rematch with Democrat Evonne Hopkins. Last cycle the race was decided by just over three percentage points and will be a toss-up in 2026.
• HD-37: Wake County’s Republican incumbent small businesswoman Erin Pare will face Winn Decker, a public administration Ph.D. who worked as a diversity consultant. This race should be considered a toss-up. 
• HD-73: Republican incumbent Jonathan Almond is a controller for a management company, and will face Thomas Monks, a former marketing professional and community organizer. This district is encompassed by the northern section of SD-34, and should be considered a toss-up. 
• HD-25: Republican incumbent Allen Chesser, a business owner and economic development leader, will face a rematch with Democrat Lorenza Wilkins a community advocate and executive with the Inter-Faith Food Shuttle, from Nash County. 
• HD-105: Republican Tricia Cotham, an education and nonprofit leader, will face Democrat Ken McCool, a small business owner and three term Commissioner with the Town of Matthews. 
• HD-32: Democrat Bryan Cohn chose not to seek reelection after unseating Republican incumbent Frank Sossamon by just over 200 votes in 2024. Now an open seat, Democrat Curtis McRae, a community leader based in Granville County hopes to hold the seat for Democrats and will face the return of former Republican Rep. Frank Sossamon, a retired physician. 

While not an exhaustive list, these races should undoubtedly be on your radar moving into the summer and fall of 2026. 

Mike Rusher is the Chief Client Engagement Officer of The Results Company and can be reached at mrusher@theresultscompany.com