2025 North Carolina Policy and Politics Preview

Today we’re looking ahead to what the 2025 policy and political scene might look like. Of course nobody can predict the future, but these are the issues and dynamics that we expect to command some attention over the next 12 months.
 
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Right off the bat – Many of this year’s policy outcomes in Raleigh will hinge on whether the state House of Representatives can cobble together a functional supermajority. Republicans are one vote shy right now with 71 seats. Incoming Speaker Destin Hall said last month, “I’m confident that there are a number of Democrats in the House caucus. . . who we’ll be able to work with on specific policy items and continue to be able to pass good legislation.“
 
The water cooler talk in the first months of the new year will center on which House Democrat, if any, might switch parties like Rep. Tricia Cotham did last session. Democratic Rep. Cecil Brockman released a scathing statement this month about the way his own caucus is bullying him. “The party would rather have a seat warmer who does nothing, sacrificing their own community’s needs for the desires of the wealthy and white Democratic elite,” Brockman said of criticism over his centrist voting record. He further explained his centrist positioning, “Often times, I find myself negotiating for what may seem like small but necessary changes that help make legislation less problematic.”
 
On its face, a party switch from someone like Brockman seems irrational, though emotions may drive the decision more than anything. Brockman represents a safe Democratic district – switching to a Republican would likely result in him losing his seat.

While Brockman attracts attention with his statements, other Democrats from rural areas like Edgecombe and Scotland County have been known to vote with Republicans against the wishes of a Democratic governor.
 
House machinations to pick off one or more Democrats to support a veto override may stall budget action in 2025. The last time Democrats had the numbers to sustain a gubernatorial veto in 2019, the legislature didn’t pass a full, formal budget for three years.

We remain hopeful, however, in our leaders working together on the most important matters of the state. Post-election, TRC Nexus reported in November that Governor elect Stein, Sen. Berger and incoming House Speaker Hall came under the same roof to express a shared vision and willingness to work together to make North Carolina a better place. Stein talked about his time spent in Western NC with business and community leaders and urged legislators (many of whom were in the room) to prioritize disaster relief funding. Stein said that he intends to be a “willing ally” with Republicans in his upcoming administration. Berger and Hall expressed a similar sentiment, with a hopeful outlook of working with the incoming governor. 
 
The year is shaping up to feature high-profile and complicated health policy fights. Independent pharmacists have been pressing the legislature to pass laws that restrict how pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs) operate. The pharmacists say they’re not getting paid fairly. The PBMs say they help keep drug costs down, and that North Carolina already has the highest health costs in the country.
 
Insurers and providers often clash over insurer practices like prior authorization, and that debate will almost certainly return in 2025. And the State Health Plan is running out of money. A new treasurer, new third-party administrator, and newly constituted Plan Board of Trustees will look to change that dynamic.
 
Gambling and gaming may return to the foreground after support collapsed for expanded brick-and-mortar casinos in 2023. Whether legislators – especially a new Speaker – have the appetite to revisit the issue is an open question. But interests related to legalized video lottery terminals, casinos, and iGaming (casino games accessible via phone apps) will likely press their case in 2025.
 
Lawmakers will almost certainly keep Hurricane Helene recovery as a top budget and policy priority, though state legislators have a fairly limited role in major disaster recovery at this scale. Damage estimates reach into the tens of billions of dollars – many times more than the balance of the state’s rainy day reserve. The only entity that can truly move the needle is Congress…
 
Next year will not feature any high profile political contests. But North Carolina has a U.S. Senate seat up in 2026 that may decide the balance of power in Washington. The incumbent, Sen. Thom Tillis, won a very close race against Cal Cunningham in 2020. There have already been rumblings of a primary challenge for Tillis. If one develops, it will have to materialize in 2025. Political observers all over the country will be watching closely.
 
Additionally, in 2025, Attorney General Josh Stein will be sworn in as North Carolina’s 76th governor and will bring about substantial staffing changes across the executive agencies. Here are some of the key cabinet appointments that will impact North Carolina’s business community.

• Lee Lilley, Secretary of Commerce: Lilley previously served as Gov. Cooper’s Director of Economic and Pandemic Recovery and as his Director of Legislative Affairs. He previously worked at a public affairs firm focused on international clients and served as the legislative director for former Congressman G.K. Butterfield.
• Joey Hopkins, Secretary of Transportation: Hopkins was first appointed to this role in 2023 by Governor Cooper after working at the North Carolina Department of Transportation for 30 years in various leadership roles, including chief operating officer, deputy chief engineer, and division engineer. Stein asked Hopkins to stay on an interim basis to ensure that Western North Carolina’s recovery is not impacted by government transition.
• D. Reid Wilson, Department of Environmental Quality: Wilson previously served as the Secretary of North Carolina Department of Natural and Cultural resources since 2021. Additionally, he has worked for various environment-focused consulting groups and as the National Political Director of the Sierra Club.
• McKinley Wooten, Jr. Department of Revenue: Wooten currently serves as the Assistance Secretary for Tax Processing, Research & Equity at the North Carolina Department of Revenue. He has over 30 years of public service, including serving as a Civil Magistrate in Wake County, Inspector General at the North Carolina Department of Justice, Deputy Secretary of the Department of Administration, and Director and Deputy Director of the Administrative Office of the Courts.

 
The first few months of 2025 will likely define how the legislature and new Gov. Josh Stein handle one another. Will the Stein administration feature a adversarial posture, similar to the Cooper administration, or will the three leaders – Stein, Senate Leader Phil Berger, and Speaker-elect Destin Hall – have a warmer relationship? The tone will be set in the upcoming legislative session. 

We know, however, as our audience of leaders reading this message – you will join us in being ready to assist our state’s leaders with solutions that better the State of North Carolina in 2025. 

Onward!