The 2026 NC Political Preview

A 2026 Political Report from the Desk of Mike Rusher 

New Year’s Eve is as good a day as any to provide you with a comprehensive preview of legislative races heading into 2026. This is a long read, but it contains all the information you need to give you a head start on the most important legislative primaries and general election districts this cycle. Share this with others who could benefit, bookmark it, and keep an eye out for a Q1 update.

Let’s set the stage: Governor Josh Stein is completing his first year, complemented by a highly skilled and motivated Council of State that has already enacted some meaningful policy changes. Although there is not yet a state budget deal, the General Assembly continued building on the strong fiscal foundation policymakers secured for North Carolina over the past decade.

Our state’s political landscape grows more complex and competitive with every passing year—likely a symptom of the rapid evolution a growing state must endure. To underscore this, consider that in a state of 11 million people, Democrats and Republicans are separated by a little over a thousand registered voters.

What follows is a comprehensive look at the legislative races, both primary and general, that should be on your radar, along with select judicial races (i.e., the State Supreme Court seat) up for grabs. These are organized in the following order:

• Senate Primaries 
• Senate General Elections
• House Primaries
• House General Elections
• Judicial Races

Thank you for reading. Let’s grab a refill of coffee and jump in.


Onward! 


Mike Rusher, CCEO, The Results Company 

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All 50 NC Senate seats and 120 NC House seats are back up for grabs, along with a seat on the state Supreme Court and several posts on the Court of Appeals. We cover state politics and policy today. We’ll publish our national analysis on Friday.

N.C. Senate 
Republicans hold a 30-20 advantage in the State Senate. They will likely maintain their majority following the midterms, but several key primaries and races will determine the chamber’s leadership and margin – the difference between a 30-seat veto-proof supermajority and a simple majority. In all, seven Republican incumbents are facing a primary challenger: Brent Jackson (SD-9), Benton Sawrey (SD-10), Jim Burgin (SD-12), Tom McInniss (SD-21), Phil Berger (SD-26), Steve Jarvis (SD-30), Chris Measmer (SD-34), and two Democrat incumbents – Sophia Chitlik (SD-22) and Paul Lowe (SD-32). 

Senate Primaries Races to Watch
Senate District 26 (Rockingham/Guilford) — The outcome of the Republican primary in SD-26 (Rockingham, Guilford) is the most important contest to follow. Senate Leader Phil Berger, the most powerful Republican in state politics for the past two decades, faces long-time critic and Rockingham County Sheriff Sam Page. This race will be the most-watched 2026 General Assembly primary, and likely the most expensive state legislative primary ever. This district is by all measures a ‘Safe Republican’ district so the winner of the primary will most likely win in November. 

• Berger is one of the most accomplished and revered politicians in North Carolina history. While Sam Page might be a new name to many of you, he’s served as Rockingham County sheriff since 1998, represents a legitimate challenge to Berger, and argues that Berger is out of touch with the district.  
• Berger points to his track record and leadership in passing some of the most impactful reforms in state history (remember, Democrats controlled the General Assembly continuously from 1899 to 2010, except for a short window when they lost control of the House in the 1990s). Those reforms include tax reform, TORT reform, a radical reduction in the income tax rate, expansion of school choice, and regulatory reforms to improve NC’s business environment. 
• Early this December, Berger’s team scored a massive victory when President Donald Trump endorsed him in a Truth Social post. Trump said Berger has his “complete and total endorsement,” applauding his work to enact America First policies in North Carolina and his endorsements by other NC politicians with ties to the president. Trump also threw an olive branch to Page, suggesting that the sheriff could have a job in Washington if he wants it. 
• In response, Page points to a poll with shoddy methodology, conducted by former Gov. Pat McCrory’s nephew, that shows Page in the lead. Page faces three SBI investigations according to news reports, yet remains a serious challenger. 

SD-34 (Cabarrus) — Sen. Chris Measmer (R) is facing a primary challenger in former state rep. Kevin Crutchfield. Measmer took over the seat early this year after high-ranking Sen. Paul Newton resigned his seat to become the general counsel at UNC Chapel Hill. For whoever wins the primary, Democrat April Cook, a local nonprofit healthcare leader, has announced her intention to run in the general election. This district went 53% to 45% for President Trump in 2024, and will likely be a competitive seat in November. 

SD-12 (Harnett,  Lee,  Sampson) —  Another primary battle to watch is in this Sanford-area district currently occupied by Sen. Jim Burgin. Tim McNeil, a Harnett County Republican with over 10 years of experience as a county commissioner and a former member of the board of trustees for Central Carolina Community College, filed to challenge Burgin. McNeil’s strong local support and track record make him a competitive challenger to unseat the four-term senator in March. This is a ‘Safe Republican’ district. 

Senate General Election Races to Watch
Beyond the primary season, several other prominent Senate Republicans are expected to face competitive races in the General Election. 

SD-7 (New Hanover)— Senate Majority Leader Michael Lee (R), whose Wilmington-area District 7has shifted closer to “tossup” status in recent years, will face Wilmington small business owner Jessica Bichler in the general. Lee presides over one of the fastest-changing, evolving districts in the state. Those demographic shifts will keep this race in the ‘Toss Up’ category next fall. 

SD-11 (Franklin, Nash, Vance)— Sen. Lisa Barnes , co-chair of the Agriculture Committee, will face former Democratic state representative and Rocky Mount pastor James Galliard in the general, who held office for two terms before being defeated by Rep. Allen Chesser (R) in 2022. In 2024, President Trump won this district by just over 3%, meaning this district stays in the ‘Toss Up’ category as well. 

While Democrats believe the momentum is on their side to flip several Senate seats from Republicans, several Democratic incumbents are vulnerable in 2026.

SD-18 (Wake, Granville)— Sen. Terence Everitt (D-Granville) will face a challenge in the general election from either Republican Cheryl Caulfield, a member of the Wake County Board of Education, or Wake Forest attorney Chris Stock. This district is a tossup, Trump carried by just 0.5%. 

SD-42 (Mecklenburg) — Another seat on the radar is this Charlotte-area Senate District 42, currently held by Sen. Woodson Bradley (D). The district leans to the left by several points, but Bradley only managed to win by a margin of 0.16% in 2024.

N.C. House 
Republicans hold a 71-49 advantage in the NC House. Led by Speaker Destin Hall, the chamber’s leadership is looking to turn the page on a particularly fractious 2025 and an increasingly tense relationship with the Senate. 

Both parties believe there is a bevy of competitive districts in 2026, and quality candidates are lining up to contend for a seat. House GOP leaders are banking on the continuation of record breaking fundraising to fuel future success.  Of greatest concern for Republicans, however, is the potential for turnover within their own party. A staggering 22 incumbent Republican legislators are being challenged in primaries. If grassroots contenders (or the deceptive party switching tactics from Democrats) can win several races against established, Caucus-favored candidates, Speaker Hall may have a much harder time holding onto 71 seats. 

Democrats, on the other hand, feel confident that the GOP-led House chamber’s inability to agree with the Senate on a state budget or a solution to funding the state’s Medicaid program beyond 2026 gives them an opportunity to flip multiple seats. House Democratic leaders say the Republicans inability to govern is hurting people. 

House Primary Races to Watch
HD-79 (Beaufort, Dare, Hyde, Pamlico) – House Freedom Caucus Chairman Rep. Keith Kidwell (R) is facing a primary challenge from Darren Armstrong, a candidate backed by House Agriculture Chair Rep. Jimmy Dixon (R-Duplin, Wayne), (who is facing a primary challenge himself in House District 4). Armstrong is also reportedly supported by NC Commissioner of Agriculture Steve Troxler, a voice expected to carry weight in this farm-heavy district. Armstrong is a farmer from Elizabeth City who has served in leadership roles with the Corn Growers of North Carolina and the US Grains Council. The race has exposed deep internal GOP divisions over agricultural policy like liability protections for farmers, casino gambling, and more. A Kidwell loss would significantly weaken the Freedom Caucus and could reshape internal power dynamics within the House Republican caucus. This is a ‘Safe Republican’ district for the general. 

House District 35 (Wake) – Republican Rep. Mike Schietzelt of Wake County faces a primary challenge from Michele Joyner-Dinwiddie, a candidate touted by NC Educators on the Ballot, a group run by liberal activists with strong ties to the NC Association of Educators. Schietzelt is a U.S. Marine Corps veteran seeking a second term in the NC House. This is a ‘Tossup’ district in the general. 

House District 105 (Mecklenburg) – Rep. Tricia Cotham made waves when she switched to the Republican Party in 2023, making the Republican caucus strong enough for a veto-proof supermajority at the time. Cotham narrowly won reelection in 2024, and for 2026, Kelly VanHorn has filed to run against her in the GOP primary, despite media reports that VanHorn has consistently voted in Democratic primaries since registering to vote in 2004. This is a ‘Tossup’ district in the general. 

HD-113 (Henderson, McDowell, Polk, Rutherford) – House Deputy Majority Whip Jake Johnson, a member of the GOP caucus’ leadership team, faces a primary challenge from former NC House Majority Leader Mike Hager. This unusual intraparty contest pits a current member of the House Republican leadership team against a former member of the same. This is a ‘Safe Republican’ district in the general. 

House District 27 (Halifax,  Northampton,  Warren)– Former Democratic State Representative Michael Wray is coming back for a rematch against incumbent Rep. Rodney Pierce. Wray, who was willing to work with Republicans on key votes in his previous term, was ousted last election by Governor Cooper-supported Rodney Pierce. Pierce has garnered the endorsement of Gov. Josh Stein, while Wray is touting his record as a moderate to get him across the finish line against Pierce. This is a ‘Safe Democrat’ district.

HD-99 (Mecklenburg)– Another primary race to watch is Charlotte-area District 99, currently occupied by Rep. Nasif Majeed (D). Valeria Levy, a local public health activist, and Tucker Neal are challenging the fifth-term-seeking Majeed. This year, Majeed has voted with Republicans on several key bills and has become a willing ally of the majority when called upon. His primary challenges, along with those of Rep. Carla Cunningham (D), appear to be a rebuke of that attitude. This is a ‘Safe Democrat’ district.

HD-106 (Mecklenburg)– Democrat Carla Cunningham has represented this Charlotte district since 2012. Cunningham got into state politics following the death of her late husband, Pete, who served in the NC House for many years before his retirement in 2007. This cycle, Cunningham is facing a loaded primary field following her controversial speech on the House floor criticizing US immigration policy under the Biden administration, which drew the ire of Democrats across the state. Two Democrats will challenge her in March – Rev. Rodney Sadler and NC National Guard member Vermanno Bowman. This is a ‘Safe Democrat’ district.

In total, 22 Republican incumbents face primary challengers, that list includes: Ed Goodwin (HD-1), Jimmy Dixon (HD-4), Joe Pike (HD-6), Carson Smith (HD-16), Frank Iler (HD-17), Donna McDowell White (HD-26), Larry Strickland (HD-28), Mike Schietzelt (HD-35), Diane Wheatley (HD-43), Reece Pyrtle (HD-65), Neal Jackson (HD-78), Keith Kidwell (HD-79), Sam Watford (HD-80), Larry Potts (HD-81), Mitch Setzer (HD-89), Todd Carver (HD-95), Tricia Cotham (HD-105), Kelly Hastings (HD-110), Jake Johnson (HD-113), Jennifer Balkcom (HD-117), Mark Pless (HD-118), Mike Clampitt (HD-119). 

House General Election Races to Watch
There’s much more activity in the House as you can see. Like the Senate, it’s doubtful that majorities are attainable for Democrats, but the following package of competitive races will determine if House Republicans end up with a low water mark of 63 seats, or a high water mark of a +72 seat supermajority. The following races will be widely discussed throughout 2026 as tossup races. 

HD-35 (Wake) – Rep. Mike Schietzelt (R) described above in his primary, will face a rematch from Democrat Evonne S. Hopkins who lost by just over 3% in 2024. Hopkins is a family law attorney, emphasizing women’s rights, public education, small business support, and community advocacy. President Trump carried this district by just under 2% in 2024, and is a suburban target district by both parties. 

HD-37 (Wake) – Rep. Erin Pare (R) faces the winner of a Democrat Primary between Marcus Gadson, Ralph Clements and Winn Decker. A small business owner and military spouse from Holly Springs, Paré’s legislative work has focused on conservative priorities and constituent services. Pare carried the district by more than 6% in 2024, outperforming President Trump’s margin of just under 3%. 

HD-24 (Nash, Wilson) – Democratic incumbent Dante Pittman is wrapping up his first term in office. He’s facing a general election challenge from Republican Blake Boykin, the chair of the Wilson County Board of Education. HD-24 has shifted more conservative in recent years and is expected to be highly competitive in the approaching cycle. President Trump carried this district by just under 1.5% in 2024. 

HD-25 (Nash) – Rep. Allen Chesser (R) is preparing to campaign for his third term in the House, in a district that’s swinging increasingly to the left. The Iraq War veteran and former police officer is facing a challenge in the general election from either Lorenza Wilkins, the Democratic chief administrative officer at the Inter-Faith Food Shuttle in Raleigh, or Harris Walker, depending on who wins the Democratic Primary. Chesser only won by 0.9% in 2024, and the district is expected to be competitive again in 2026. President Trump split the vote with Kamala Harris in this district in 2024. 

HD-48 (Hoke,  Scotland) – US Army veteran and career Baptist minister Rep. Garland Pierce (D) is seeking his 12th term in the NC House. His district has shifted significantly to the right over the past decade. In 2018, Pierce won by more than 25% of the vote; in 2024, Pierce only won by 3.8%. Ahead of 2026, two Republican challengers have entered the fray – Ralph Carter, a military veteran and orthopedic surgeon, and Kirk Lowery, a local Board of Adjustments member. Kamala Harris won this district in 2024 by just under 1%. 

House District 105 (Mecklenburg) – Rep. Tricia Cotham’s primary race is described above, and the General Election will be again one of the most targeted and reported races. She is facing Democrat Ken McCool, a Matthews Town Commissioner who is focusing on local issues including opposition to Mecklenburg County’s transit plan and representing communities like Matthews and Mint Hill in the state legislature. Kamala Harris carried this district in 2024 by just over 0.5%.

House District 5 (Camden,  Gates,  Hertford,  Pasquotank) – Rep. Bill Ward is the Republican incumbent representing North Carolina House District 5, a retired law enforcement officer and U.S. Army veteran from Elizabeth City, Ward’s campaign aims to continue his legislative service for the district. Sam Davis III is the Democratic candidate, and currently occupies the at-large seat on the Pasquotank Board of Commissioners and has a long history as an elected official. Davis is also the owner and broker-in-charge of Sam Davis and Associates Realty LLC. President Trump carried this district by more than 6% in 2024. 

HD-98 (Mecklenburg) – Rep. Beth Helfrich is the Democratic incumbent representing NC House District 98, first elected by just over 4% in 2024. She is a former educator and partisan activist whose priorities include public education, healthcare access, and responsible community growth. Republican John W. Rhodes is a Republican candidate for NC House District 98 and former state representative who previously served the district from 2003 to 2007. Rhodes is a real estate broker and longtime Huntersville resident. Kamala Harris carried this district by 2.5% in 2024. 

HD-32 (Granville,  Vance) – Rep. Brian Cohn (D) is leaving his seat, leaving this as an open seat election. Former Rep. Frank Sossaman (R) was unseated in 2024 by Cohn by just 0.5% of the vote, and Sossaman is returning to run in the Republican Primary, to face the winner of the Democratic Primary between Curtis McRae, a lifelong Granville County resident with a background in public service and U.S. Marine Corps service, and Melissa Elliott, the Mayor of Henderson, North Carolina. Harris carried the district over Trump by 0.5% in 2024. 

There are many more meaningful races we could highlight for both the House and the Senate, underscoring how important many view the 2026 cycle. In addition, there are several high-stakes judicial races to look out for. 

Judicial 
In the state Supreme Court, Democratic incumbent Anita Earls, the second most-tenured justice on the bench, is running for her second eight-year term. On the Republican side, Earls is expected to face off against State Rep. Sarah Stevens from Surry County, who has served in the General Assembly for nearly two decades. Currently, Republicans have a 5-2 advantage on the high court; a Stevens victory could widen this crucial majority even more. 

On the Appeals Court, where Republicans currently hold a 12-3 advantage, three Democratic seats are up for grabs, meaning it’s possible that the entire COA could be completely filled with conservative jurists. 

No matter where you look – Senate, House, or the Courts – the 2026 midterms are filled with impactful primary and general election races that will define the rest of the 2020s in North Carolina politics.