N.C. Campaign Finance Update – 94 Days Until Election Day

Thank you for joining us this Saturday morning. 

Now that second quarter fundraising reports are mostly published, we’re offering a campaign finance update for the candidates in the top state and federal races. Election Day is November 3, and the in-person early voting period runs from Oct. 15 to Oct. 31.

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Key Party Accounts

Nationally, the RNC continues to dominate the DNC in both fundraising and organization. A recent New York Times headline is emblematic of the DNC’s issues: “Inside the Phone-Throwing Drama at the Troubled, Broke Democratic Party.”

The RNC has raised more than the DNC this cycle, but it’s not a huge gap: $279 million for the elephants, and $207 million for the donkeys. Even so, the RNC ended June with $129 million in cash on hand, while the DNC ended June in the red, with $2 million in debt. 

The GOP’s congressional and Senate campaign accounts also outmatch their Democratic equivalents. As POLITICO reported last week, “The three main GOP party committees and their two caucus-aligned super PACs reported $657 million cash on hand at the end of June, according to the latest filings with the Federal Election Commission. That’s nearly double the $334 million held by their Democratic rivals.”

U.S. Senate (open seat)

Democrat Roy Cooper has a large fundraising advantage over his rival, Republican Michael Whatley, in this year’s headline statewide contest. Cooper has about $27 million combined cash on hand across his various committees, while Whatley has about $8 million.

Congressional District 1 (incumbent: Democrat Don Davis)

Incumbent Don Davis (D), considered among the most moderate Democrats in Congress, defeated Republican challenger Laurie Buckhout (R) in 2024 by less than 2%. Since then, this district has been reconfigured to significantly favor Republicans. Cook Political Report currently ranks the district as “Lean R,” while Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved the district to tossup just this week. President Trump won this district 55.3% to 44.7%.

Davis has both raised more and spent less than Buckhout so far this cycle. Davis has $3.5 million going into the critical stretch of the campaign, compared to $1.8 million for Buckhout.

Congressional District 11 (incumbent: Republican Chuck Edwards)

We wrote in February that Democrats view this seat as a potential pick-up opportunity “if the campaign environment further deteriorates.” Two-term congressman Chuck Edwards (R) trails challenger Jamie Ager (D), the founder and CEO of Hickory Nut Gap Farm, significantly in fundraising, and Edwards also faces a widely publicized ethics investigation. Edwards has about $500,000 cash on hand, compared to Ager’s $2.2 million.

Cook Political Report moved this race from “Likely R” to “Lean R” last month. National GOP accounts may need to bolster Edwards with outside spending – an unappetizing prospect in a district Trump carried by 10 points. 

State Supreme Court (incumbent: Democrat Anita Earls)

The U.S. Senate race may be this year’s headline statewide contest, but the state Supreme Court race may have the most long-term impact in North Carolina. Incumbent Anita Earls (D) won her seat in 2018 with less than 50% of the vote, after Democrat Chris Anglin switched parties to run as a “Republican,” thus splitting the Republican vote with Barbara Jackson. 

As we wrote in April, if Earls defeats challenger Sarah Stevens (R), then Democrats would have an easier chance of reclaiming the high court when three Republican incumbents face reelection in 2028.

Earls reported $3.5 million cash on hand – a very large figure for a judicial race. Stevens reported $257,000 cash on hand. Despite the severe cash disparity, Stevens can gain some level of confidence in the fact that Democrats have had a hard time winning judicial contests in North Carolina over the past decade.

Key Legislative Races

Below, we’ve summarized the cash positions of state legislative contests that the North Carolina FreeEnterprise Foundation (NCFREE) rates as tossups. Very few political observers expect either chamber to retain a Republican supermajority. The question is how bad will things get for the Republican majorities in advance of 2028 and, crucially, the 2030 redistricting year election. 

Democrats have a pathway to winning majorities in 2030 and entrenching themselves in power for the rest of the decade. It’s narrow, and a lot of external circumstances over which they have no control will need to go their way. But the path exists, and it starts with this year’s election.

House District 24 (incumbent: Democrat Dante Pittman)

Rep. Dante Pittman (D) first won this Nash and Wilson County state House seat in 2024. He faces challenger Blake Boykin (R), who chairs the Wilson County Board of Education. Pittman has $281,000 cash on hand, compared to Boykin’s $163,000. 

House District 25 (incumbent: Republican Allen Chesser)

Rep. Allen Chesser (R), a former law enforcement officer and Iraq War veteran, has distinguished himself as a rising star in the state House. Unfortunately, his Nash County seat is a perennial nail-biter, and he faces a challenging electoral environment this year. Chesser has $116,000 on hand. His challenger, Dr. Lorenza Wilkins (D) – a nonprofit director – has $136,000 on hand.

House District 32 (incumbent: Democrat Brian Cohn)

Brian Cohn (D), the incumbent, initially chose not to seek reelection. He reentered the race after Curtis McRae, who won the nomination, removed himself from the ballot, citing health issues. Cohn faces former Rep. Frank Sossamon (R), who lost to Cohn in 2024 by less than 300 votes.

Cohn has $9,000 on hand. Sossamon has $45,000 on hand.

House District 37 (incumbent: Republican Erin Paré)

Rep. Erin Paré (R) is one of only two Republicans representing Wake County in the General Assembly. Paré comfortably won reelection in 2024 by more than 6%, but she is among the most vulnerable House Republicans in this year’s difficult electoral environment. She faces Winn Decker (D), who has a background in diversity consulting. Decker has $104,000 cash on hand, while Paré has $316,000. 

House District 62 (incumbent: Republican John Blust)

Rep. John Blust (R) returned to the House in 2024 after more than two decades in the legislature, having been appointed by the Guilford County GOP to fill Rep. John Faircloth’s vacancy before winning a full term that fall. His opponent, Shelly Headen (D), is an accountant and small business owner who has been active in Guilford County schools. Headen leads in cash on hand, with $36,700 to Blust’s $27,800.

House District 73 (incumbent: Republican Jonathan Almond)

Rep. Jonathan Almond (R), an accountant, flipped this Cabarrus County seat in 2024 by unseating Democratic incumbent Diamond Staton-Williams. His challenger, Thomas Monks, only made the general election ballot after his sole primary opponent, Kim DeLaney, passed away in January. Almond holds a financial edge, with $18,700 on hand compared to Monks’ $2,600.

House District 74 (incumbent: Republican Jeff Zenger)

Rep. Jeff Zenger (R), the House’s conference chair, faces a rematch with Democrat Amy Taylor North, whom he defeated in 2024 by almost 2,000 votes. This Forsyth County seat has trended leftward over the last four election cycles, and North has significantly outraised the incumbent this cycle, holding $270,200 on hand to Zenger’s $127,800.

House District 75 (incumbent: Republican Donny Lambeth)

Rep. Donny Lambeth (R), a senior budget writer, seeks reelection in a Forsyth County seat he’s held since 2012. His opponent, Jen Wiles (D), is a longtime healthcare clinician active in local Democratic groups. Lambeth has $25,200 on hand versus Wiles’ $10,900.

House District 105 (incumbent: Republican Tricia Cotham)

Rep. Tricia Cotham (R) ranks as the most vulnerable incumbent, representing a Mecklenburg County seat that has trended left. Cotham, who switched from the Democratic to the Republican Party in 2023 – a move that handed House Republicans a veto-proof supermajority – faces Ken McCool, a longtime Matthews town commissioner. Cotham has $153,800 on hand to McCool’s $76,200.

Senate District 1 (open seat)

This northeastern North Carolina Senate seat, covering ten counties from the Outer Banks to the Virginia border, is open this cycle. Retired Superior Court judge Jerry Tillett (R) won a competitive four-candidate Republican primary with just 37% of the vote to claim the nomination. He faces Democrat Melissa Zehner, an educator from Dare County. Tillett holds only a modest financial edge, with $37,300 on hand to Zehner’s $15,700.

Senate District 7 (incumbent: Republican Michael Lee)

Sen. Michael Lee (R), the chamber’s majority leader, is being challenged by Jessica Bichler (D), a Wilmington yoga studio owner making her first bid for office. This New Hanover County district is a perennial tossup, but Lee has amassed an enormous financial advantage – $1.15 million on hand compared to Bichler’s $114,200. Lee is also vying to be the Senate’s new President Pro Tempore.

Senate District 11 (incumbent: Republican Lisa Stone Barnes)

Sen. Lisa Stone Barnes (R) has held this Nash County seat since 2020. She faces James Gailliard (D), a Rocky Mount pastor and former state representative who served in the House from 2019 to 2023. Barnes has $187,900 on hand; Gailliard’s campaign has not yet published its cash-on-hand figure.

Senate District 18 (incumbent: Democrat Haseeb Fatmi)

Sen. Haseeb Fatmi (D) was appointed in May 2026 to fill the vacancy left by Terence Everitt’s resignation, making him one of the least battle-tested incumbents in a competitive race, though this Granville-and-northern-Wake seat has trended leftward. His opponent, attorney Chris Stock (R), won a two-candidate Republican primary against Wake County school board member Cheryl Caulfield with more than 60% of the vote. Fatmi holds the fundraising edge, with $79,800 on hand to Stock’s $31,600.