2026 National Political Preview

Good morning. 

Today, we’re previewing the lay of the land for the 2026 midterm elections and the battle for control of the U.S. House and Senate. 

President Donald Trump and the Republican Party look to maintain their majorities in both chambers of the U.S. Congress. 

Voters are closing out 2025 frustrated with Washington and anxious about the cost of living. President Trump’s approval has slipped back into the mid-30s in recent Gallup polling after hovering in the low-40s for much of the year. Congressional approval is even weaker, stuck in the mid-teens. 

Yet, less than a year from Election Day, this mood has not translated into a clear national wave for either side. As of Dec. 19, the RealClearPolitics (RCP) average of the generic congressional ballot shows Democrats leading by 3.7 percentage points. 

This is a much more favorable position for Republicans than the same point in President Trump’s first term, when Republicans trailed by more than 11 percentage points in RCP’s generic congressional vote data. 

The battle for the U.S. House will likely hinge on a small number of competitive seats. The U.S. Supreme Court has allowed Texas to move forward with its redistricted congressional maps, and a lower federal court has paved the way for North Carolina to do the same. 

With the GOP holding a modest House majority, and redistricting gains for Republicans in North Carolina, Texas, and Ohio, the Cook Political Report rates fewer than three dozen districts as competitive, and only a handful as true tossups. Here in North Carolina, there is one competitive but GOP-leaning House race and one top Senate race. 

North Carolina 

The Senate race is an open seat to fill the vacancy created when Sen. Thom Tillis announced he would not seek reelection. Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper and former Republican National Committee and NC GOP Chairman Michael Whatley are almost certain to lead the tickets. 

Following redistricting this fall, North Carolina is expected to have only one potentially competitive House race: the First Congressional District in the northeastern part of the state. Democratic U.S. Rep. Don Davis announced his intention to seek reelection to the seat. Once a top target for both parties, recent redistricting has made CD 1 friendlier to Republicans but still within striking distance for the incumbent if the national mood trends poorly for the GOP.

State Senator Bobby Hanig, Lenoir County Commissioner Eric Rouse, Carteret County Sheriff Asa Buck, Greenville attorney Ashley-Nicole Russell, and 2024 Republican nominee Laurie Buckhout are the candidates vying for the Republican nomination. President Trump recently held a rally in Rocky Mount, though he did not offer his highly coveted endorsement in the race. In 2024, he endorsed Laurie Buckhout, who lost to Rep. Davis under the old district lines in one of the closest House races of the cycle. 

Republicans have been steadily closing the voter-registration gap with Democrats in North Carolina, with the historic lead now narrowed to just 1,216 voters; while registration figures do not predict election outcomes, the trend is a notable development heading into 2026.

Across the country, the battle for control of the U.S. Senate will unfold on a narrower playing field in competitive states where both parties have won statewide in recent cycles. Cook currently rates four races as true “Toss Ups”: incumbents seeking reelection Sens. John Ossoff (D-GA) and Susan Collins (R-ME), and open seats in Michigan and North Carolina. Cook also views New Hampshire’s open seat as “Lean Democratic” and incumbent Sen. Jon Husted (R-OH) as “Lean Republican.”

With respect to NC’s Senate race, as Alex Baltzegar of the North Carolina FreeEnterprise Foundation recently argued in POLITICO, the Cooper–Whatley matchup “is on a trajectory for another record — the first billion-dollar Senate race ever,” with significant outside spending, media saturation, and one of the first campaigns featuring “AI-driven technology…deployed at scale.”

This prediction is already well on its way to reality. Cooper’s campaign reported raising $14.5 million through the end of the third quarter of 2025, to Whatley’s campaign raising $5.8 million. 

At the national level, the RNC holds a massive cash advantage as of this writing. At the end of the last reporting period, the RNC had $91.2 million on hand, compared to the DNC’s $18.3 million. Democrats also carry $15.1 million in debt, while the RNC had none. 

Figures for House and Senate campaign arms appear much closer. The NRCC had $45.7 million in cash on hand compared to the DCCC’s $46.8 million. And on the Senate side, the NRSC reported $14.9 million to the DSCC’s $18.4 million. 

Georgia
Incumbent Democratic U.S. Sen. John Ossoff, first elected in 2021 after a high-stakes runoff against former Sen. David Perdue, is again on the ballot in a state with a shifting partisan balance. President Trump won Georgia in 2016 and reclaimed it in 2024. Ossoff will likely face a full-court press from Republicans hoping to retake the seat, although the GOP faces a contested primary.

Michigan
Former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers appears likely to be the Republican nominee for the open seat created by Democratic Sen. Gary Peters’ decision not to seek reelection. Rogers narrowly lost a U.S. Senate race in 2024 to now-Sen. Elissa Slotkin by just over 20,000 votes. Michigan remains a perennial battleground, with President Trump carrying the state in 2016 and 2024, and losing it to Joe Biden in 2020. Democrats face a competitive three-way primary, while Rogers appears likely to enter the general-election fight on firmer footing with President Trump’s endorsement.

Maine
Incumbent Republican Sen. Susan Collins has been a top target for national Democrats for several cycles. In 2020, outside groups spent more than $110 million on the race, as Collins faced a challenge from Sara Gideon, who raised over $68 million to Collins’ $26.5 million. Collins won by just over 70,000 votes, while President Trump split Maine’s electoral votes, just as he did in 2016 and 2024. Democrats are once more seeking to unseat Collins, with a competitive primary between former Democratic Gov. Janet Mills and activist Graham Platner drawing significant attention, and Platner polling close to or ahead of Mills among primary voters.

New Hampshire
New Hampshire is likely to retain its battleground status in the race to succeed Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, who is not seeking reelection. Republicans face a competitive primary between former U.S. Senators Scott Brown (R-MA) and John Sununu (R-NH). Meanwhile, Democrats have largely unified behind U.S. Rep. Chris Pappas (D-NH-01). Although President Trump lost New Hampshire in each of his presidential campaigns, the state has elected Republicans statewide in recent years, including former U.S. Sen. and current Gov. Kelly Ayotte.

Ohio 
Once a perennial battleground, Ohio has trended more Republican in recent years, with President Trump carrying the state in 2016, 2020, and 2024. Former Democratic U.S. Sen. Sherrod Brown, who lost his seat in 2024, is seeking a comeback in 2026 against incumbent Republican Sen. Jon Husted, who was appointed last year to succeed former Sen. and current Vice President JD Vance. Both are seasoned campaigners, with Husted having previously served as Ohio House speaker, secretary of state, and lieutenant governor. 

2026 is shaping up less as a classic referendum election and more as a test of competing arguments about the future direction of the country. President Trump’s approval ratings are clearly being dragged down by erosion among independents, even as Republican enthusiasm remains high. Voters continue to express deep frustration with Washington, persistent concerns about affordability, and skepticism that either party has a clear plan to address those challenges. 

Control of Congress is likely to be decided not by a sweeping national wave, but by a narrow set of battleground races where candidate quality, fundraising strength, and issue messaging matter most.