Way too early 2024 political landscape preview

Good Saturday morning.

It’s nearly May, and you likely haven’t thought all that much about the 2022 election results in a few weeks (or, if you’re healthy, a few months).

That means it’s prime time to look ahead to the Way Too Early 2024 Ballot Preview. TRC Nexus is, after all, a political intelligence newsletter. Though we often complain ourselves about the never-ending election cycle, it is part of life, and it’s our job to inform you about it.

We tried to keep all analysis brief because there are a lot of names and races involved. We’ll start with federal races then move our way down to state contests.

Buckle up.

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Here are the positions for which you will elect your leaders in 2024:

• U.S. President
• There is no U.S. Senate race in 2024 – The seat occupied by Thom Tillis will be up in 2026
• U.S. House – The state will have new districts for each of its 14 congressional representatives in 2024
• Governor (open seat)
• Lt. Governor (open seat)
• Attorney General (open seat)
• Commissioner of Agriculture
• Commissioner of Insurance
• Secretary of State
• Commissioner of Labor (open seat)
• State Auditor
• State Treasurer (open seat)
• Superintendent of Public Instruction
• N.C. Supreme Court (one of seven)

U.S President

Democrats
Incumbent Joe Biden, 80, announced his reelection on Tuesday, April 25. He faces a longshot primary challenge from Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., 69.

Republicans
Donald Trump, 76, announced his third bid for the presidency earlier this year. Right now, an unannounced prospective candidate, Ron DeSantis, 44, poses the biggest threat to Trump’s nomination.

Other contenders include Nikki Haley, 51, who announced her campaign in February, and Mike Pence, 63, who said he will decide in June.

Longshot candidates are Perry Johnson, Vivek Ramaswamy, and Asa Hutchinson, who have all announced their campaigns. Tim Scott, Chris Christie, and Chris Sununu are rumored to be considering a run.

Analysis
Large majorities of the country do not wish for Joe Biden or Donald Trump to seek the presidency again. A recent NBC News poll found that 60% of Americans (30% of Republicans) do not want Trump to run, and 70% of Americans (51% of Democrats) do not want Biden to run. Yet right now, they are the two likeliest candidates.

As for North Carolina, a January poll from Differentiators Data has DeSantis (47.4%) leading Trump (34.7%) in a primary, and DeSantis (48.8%) leading Biden (43.8%) in a general. The same poll has Biden (48.4%) leading Trump (44.6%) in a general.

A Carolina Partnership for Reform poll from March shows DeSantis (47%) leading Biden (42%) in a general, and Biden (46%) leading Trump (44%).

Trump won North Carolina by 1% in 2020. In a rematch, it’s possible Biden becomes the first Democratic presidential candidate to carry North Carolina since Barack Obama in 2008.


U.S. House

Analysis
The legislature will redraw the state’s 14 congressional districts later this year. The last 2022 congressional map drawn by the legislature, which was struck down and redrawn by the judiciary, had six safe Republican seats, four safe Democratic seats, and four toss-up seats.

Governor

Democrats
Incumbent Roy Cooper is term-limited and cannot seek reelection. The only current Democratic candidate is Josh Stein, who announced very early, in January. EPA Secretary Michael Regan was a rumored challenger, though that chatter has quieted.

Republicans
Mark Robinson announced his candidacy last weekend, and Dale Folwell announced last month. Additional entrants may include Mark Walker and Steve Troxler.

Analysis
Right now, Stein appears to have no formal competition for the nomination. Political observers largely perceive Robinson as having already won the Republican primary. Stein has $3,800,454 on hand and Robinson has $2,233,175 on hand. Folwell has less than $100,000.

The March poll from Carolina Partnership for Reform has Robinson (44%) leading Stein (39%), but it remains to be seen what kind of impact a multimillion-dollar ad blitz highlighting Robinson’s past statements will have in a general election. Notably, Robinson’s high-profile announcement speech and his rebuttal to Cooper’s State of the State address shied away from controversy.

It is difficult to imagine two more different candidates. Stein is a buttoned-up, controlled, Ivy League-educated lawyer from a wealthy family who lives inside the beltline in Raleigh. Robinson is a brash, free-wheeling former factory worker raised in abject poverty on the wrong side of the tracks in Greensboro. That contrast generally favors Robinson.

(The following races will be lower-profile affairs that will likely track generic sentiment. We will mostly refrain from further analysis.)


Lt. Governor

Democrats
Rachel Hunt, Raymond Smith, Chris Rey, and Delmonte Crawford have announced their candidacies. Brian Turner, Sydney Batch, and Ben Clark are rumored to be considering a run.

Republicans
Hal Weatherman, Allen Mashburn, and Peter Boykin have announced, and Jim Burgin is a rumored candidate.


Attorney General

Democrats
There are no announced candidates. Jeff Jackson is rumored to be considering a run.

Republicans
Former State House Rep. Tom Murray announced his candidacy. Ray Starling, Sam Hayes, Jim O’Neill, Andrew Murray and Congressman Dan Bishop are rumored to be considering a run. Some political observers consider Starling, General Counsel of the NC Chamber, the likeliest nominee, but it is very early.


Secretary of State

Democrats
Elaine Marshall is the incumbent. No other candidates have announced.

Republicans
No announced candidates.


Commissioner of Labor

Democrats
Jessica Holmes is a rumored candidate.

Republicans
Ben Moss, who is a former union member, and Jon Hardister have announced their candidacies. Though a low-profile affair, who wins this race will have major impacts on the business community. Hardister has $237,098 on hand. Moss has $5,638 on hand.


State Auditor

Democrats
Beth Wood is the incumbent. She has not announced if she will run for reelection amid a hit-and-run scandal.

Republicans
Long time Wake Republican activist Charles Dingee announced his campaign for auditor when news of Beth Wood’s hit-and-run scandal broke.

Commissioner of Agriculture

Democrats
No announced candidates.

Republicans
Steve Troxler is the long-time incumbent. If Troxler retires, Brent Jackson is a rumored candidate.


Commissioner of Insurance

Democrats
No announced candidates.

Republicans
Mike Causey is a one-term incumbent. He has not announced if he will seek reelection.


State Treasurer

Democrats
Wesley Harris announced his candidacy.

Republicans
Dale Folwell is the incumbent, but he is running for governor. John Bradford announced his campaign this month.


Superintendent of Public Instruction

Democrats
No announced candidates.

Republicans
Catherine Truitt is a one-term incumbent. Sloan Rachmuth, an activist blogger, has threatened a primary challenge.


N.C. Supreme Court

Democrats
Michael Morgan is the incumbent and he has not announced whether he intends to seek reeleciton.

Republicans
Jefferson Griffin, an appellate court judge, announced his candidacy in January. Regardless of the outcome, Republicans will control the Supreme Court until 2028 unless there are unexpected vacancies.

And for now, we’ll call it a wrap. As this is a “way too early” preview, the names and lists above could change in between the time this is sent and the time you read it, but it’s important to get an inside look either way. Thanks for reading and as these races shape up, we’ll include updates, as always, in the weekly TRC Nexus news summaries.