July 2024 Overview of the National Political Landscape

Thank you for joining us.

This Saturday morning, we are going to survey the political landscape for the presidential race and the battles for control of the United States Senate and House. The goal of this piece is to clearly lay out the key metrics regarding polling and fundraising to help our subscribers sort through the cluttered punditry and see what is clearly happening.


Presidential Race
The 2024 presidential politics will drive attention and voter turnout in November. The race for president will impact every race on the ticket.

Presidential contests attract reams of polling data that come in by the hour. The best way to understand the polling data is to look at poll aggregators, instead of individual polls – which helps smooth out trends and account for the in-house biases that each polling firm generally has.

Here is where the race stands now according to the prominent Real Clear Politics polling average for Trump and Biden: 

At the time of this writing, Trump leads Biden by 3.3% nationally.

Below is the 538 presidential election model, owned by ABC News, which accounts for state and national polling information in addition to historical trends to predict who will win the electoral college. This model shows a fairly even match, but that could change as Election Day nears. 

Here’s a look at top of the ticket fundraising:

As you can see, President Biden has raised $232 million and has $91 million cash on hand – with $132 million in transfers from the DNC. President Trump has raised $195 million and has $116 million on hand – with $188 million in transfers from the RNC. 

2024 U.S. Senate Map
The upper chamber is closely divided, with 51 Democrats (and independents who caucus with Democrats) and 49 Republicans. But Democrats face an uphill challenge this year. Every two years, a third of the Senate stands for election, and this year Democrats have to defend 23 seats, while Republicans only have to defend 11 seats. Democrats must win every competitive seat to maintain the majority, while Republicans have to win just one seat.

Here is a list of the top ten Senate seats most likely to flip. Note nine out of the 10 are currently held by Democrats.

• West Virginia– Once the popular Republican Jim Justice announced his intention to run for Senate, incumbent Sen. Joe Manchin (D) announced his plans to retire. This is considered a safe Republican seat.
• Montana– Sen. John Tester (D) currently holds the seat in deep red Montana and will face veteran Tim Sheehy, the Republican nominee. Tester barely secured reelection back in 2018 against a deeply unpopular candidate, who declined to run this time.
• Ohio– Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) will face off against Republican businessman Bernie Moreno, who accumulated wealth by owning car dealerships. Like Tester, Brown survived reelection last time around against a weak Republican opponent. Brown has not been on the same ballot as Trump, and it is unclear how Trump voters will behave when faced with a choice between Brown and Moreno. 
• Nevada– Sen. Jackie Rosen (D) is up for reelection for the first time. She will face war veteran Sam Brown, who national Republicans hand-selected. Nevada has been moving more Republican demographically over the last couple of cycles, and Rosen’s relatively weak name ID provides Republicans a possible path to victory.
• Arizona– Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, an independent who caucuses with Democrats, announced her plans to retire. Progressive Congressman Ruben Gallego (D) faces off against Kari Lake (R), a former TV reporter who lost the race for governor in 2022.
• Pennsylvania– Sen. Bob Casey (D) faces veteran and business owner David McCormick, who Republicans rallied around early to prevent a nasty primary. McCormick first entered politics in 2022 when he ran in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate, only to narrowly lose to Dr. Oz.
• Michigan– Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) announce her retirement last year, leaving an open in seat in a perennial battleground state. Democrats have rallied around Rep. Elissa Slotkin who served in the CIA before running for Congress. Republicans have a competitive primary field (that’s right, primaries are still happening, August 6th in the Great Lake State), Trump endorsed former Congressman Mike Rogers, who is now considered the frontrunner.
• Wisconsin– Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) will face Republican Eric Hovde, the CEO of Sunwest Bank. Republicans hoped to recruit Rep. Mike Gallagher as the candidate for this race, but he decided to retire from Congress instead.
• Maryland– Former Gov. Larry Hogan (R) announced his run for Senate after long-time Democratic Senator Ben Cardin announced his retirement. Hogan faces off against Angela Alsobrooks (D), who is the executive for a county in the D.C. suburbs. While Maryland has been a deep blue state, Gov. Hogan managed to get reelected in 2018 despite the so-called blue wave. Though Alsobrooks (D) is currently holding a nine percentage point advantage in polls aggregated, the race is expected to tighten. 
• Texas– Sen. Ted Cruz (R) faces Dallas-area Congressman Colin Allred (D). Demographically, Democrats often suspect that Texas will become more competitive sometime in the future. But as of right now, Cruz enjoys a healthy lead in the polls, and all signs indicate that Trump will perform better than Biden in Texas.

In order for Democrats to maintain control of the chamber, they need to win almost every competitive Senate election, while Republicans just need to win one, since West Virginia is already an almost guaranteed Republican pick up.

U.S. Senate fundraising
Let’s take a look at the fundraising hauls for the top Republican and Democratic U.S. Senate groups. 

As you can see, the National Republican Senatorial Committee has $41 million on hand and the Senate Leadership Fund (Republican) has $59 million on hand. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has $48 million on hand, and the Senate Majority PAC (Democratic) has $92 million on hand. 

While Democrats face a tough map, fundraising totals for caucus-wide campaign coffers and for independent entities show that Democrats have a slight money edge. However, once the primaries conclude, Republicans may be able to make up some lost ground.

Race for the U.S. House of Representatives
While all 435 U.S. House seats are up for election, most are not considered competitive. Cook Political Report, a respected nonpartisan analysis site, says there are only 22 tossup House seats, 17 lean-Republican seats, and 28 lean-Democrat seats. The remaining 368 House seats are not likely to shift barring some seismic shift in American politics.

While individual House races can be difficult to poll, the generic Congressional ballot – which just asks voters whether they’re rather vote for a Republican or a Democrat – can often be a useful indicator of which party voters prefer in Congress. 

Currently, Republicans have a small lead on the polling average for the generic ballot question. This type of result typically indicates that Congress will return with a narrow Republican majority, which has proven difficult for House leaders to manage.

U.S. House Fundraising 
Let’s take a look at the fundraising hauls for the top Republican and Democratic U.S. House groups. 

The most recent campaign finance reports for the caucus-wide campaign committees and designated super PACS show Democrats with a slight edge in fundraising. This may be the result of the Speakership drama that plagued House Republicans throughout 2023, which limited the Speaker’s ability to raise money.

As you can see, the National Republican Congressional Committee has $70 million cash on hand and the Congressional Leadership Fund (Republican) has $68 million on hand. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has $78 million on hand and the House Majority PAC (Democratic) has $78 million on hand.  

Final Thought
Everything is close and bitterly divided, though Republicans hold a clear advantage in the Senate. If former President Donald Trump wins, it is likely that he will have turned out enough Republicans to enjoy majorities in the House and Senate too, clearing the way for more legislation reflecting his agenda. If President Biden secures reelection, there is a strong chance that he will still lose Democratic control of the U.S. Senate but may end up with a more closely divided, or even flipped U.S. House to manage. A Republican Senate could more effectively block his nominees for executive branch positions, limiting Biden’s second-term agenda.