National Political Primer Ahead of 2024

Good morning.

2024 is almost here. What may be one of the most critical elections of our lifetime, or that is what every politician will claim from now until November 5th, 2024.

Today, TRC Nexus will provide a high-level overview of the Presidential contest and battle for control of Congress. Let us dive in.

State of play in the Presidential race
After the New Year, the Presidential Primary process will begin in earnest. On the Democratic side, Pres. Joe Biden seems set to sail through the process without any serious opposition. The Republican primary is a different matter altogether—currently, former Pres. Donald Trump has a commanding lead, and it remains to be seen if non-Trump Republicans can consolidate behind a candidate early enough in the process to prevent Trump from securing the nomination, unlike 2016. The Iowa Caucus is on January 15th, New Hampshire Primary is a week later on January 23rd, and the Republican Primary in South Carolina is on February 24th. (Click here for a full calendar of important 2024 election dates.)

The key make-or-break date for the Republican Presidential Primary contest is March 5th, Super Tuesday. On this date, 16 states, including North Carolina, will hold their primary or caucus contests to award over a third of the delegates necessary to secure the nomination. If the non-Trump forces can consolidate around an alternative, they may be able to defeat him. Still, if Trump wins most of the contests on Super Tuesday, it will be nearly mathematically impossible to stop him.

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The polling shows the most likely outcome is a Trump-Biden rematch in 2024. Something most Americans oppose.

According to the Real Clear Politics polling average, one of the more reliable metrics, former Pres. Trump leads Biden in a hypothetical match-up by three points, something not seen during 2020.

Here are three things to consider when looking at the current polling.

• Currently, Biden is suffering with younger voters for various reasons, dragging down his overall poll numbers. For Trump to succeed in 2024, he must break the historical trend of younger voters picking Democrats over Republicans. Additionally, while many liberal voters are disenchanted with Biden now, it is far from clear if they will stay home in 2024 and allow Trump to win.
• The trials for the myriad of legal issues facing Trump begin after Super Tuesday, when he is likely to secure the Republican nomination. Polling consistently shows Pres. Trump loses a substantial block of independent voters if he is convicted of one of the 91 counts and becomes a convicted felon. This has never been a factor in a Presidential contest, so the exact outcome is hard to foresee.
• Both Trump and Biden are historically unpopular. The 2024 election may feature the first serious third-party challenge since 1992.

Battle for control of the Senate.
Republicans have a once-in-a-decade opportunity to gain control of the U.S. Senate. Republicans are playing offense in three states that lean heavily Republican, Democrats must protect five incumbents in swing states, and Republicans only have to defend Texas and Florida.

From Cook Political Report 

Here is a quick analysis of the state of play in each key Senate race.

Three deep-red states with Democratic Senators

• West Virginia. Rather than face popular Republican Governor Jim Justice, Democratic Senator Joe Manchin decided to retire. Most analysts believe Republicans will easily secure this seat.
• Montana. National Republicans recruited former Navy Seal and small business owner Tim Sheehy to run against long-time Democratic Senator Jon Tester. The concern on the Republican side is if Congressman Matt Rosendale chooses to rechallenge Tester and lose again like he did in 2018.
• Ohio. Since the rise of Donald Trump, Ohio went from a swing state to a red state but has been represented by Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown since 2007. Republicans are in a competitive primary, but this will likely be one of the most expensive Senate races this cycle.

Senate races in swing states

• Arizona. The state is set for a three-way race between the Democratic nominee Ruben Gallego, Republican Kari Lake (who lost the Governor’s race in 2022), and current Independent Senator Kyrsten Sinema. At this point, it is anyone’s guess who will win the general election in that three-way contest.
• Nevada. Democratic Senator Jackie Rosen is running for election for the first time. Republicans recruited veteran Sam Brown to challenge her.
• Michigan. Democratic Senator Debbie Stabenow is retiring, leaving an open seat in a swing state. Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) leads the Democratic field, with the Republicans facing a multicandidate primary.
• Wisconsin. Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin is running for reelection again. Republicans tried to recruit Congressman Michael Gallagher, but he decided to stay in the U.S. House and lead the China subcommittee. After Gallagher passed, National Republicans recruited successful businessman Eric Hovde to challenge Baldwin.
• Pennsylvania. Democratic Senator Bob Casey is running for his fourth term in the United States Senate. Republicans coalesced around veteran and business leader David McCormick, who narrowly lost to Dr. Oz in the 2022 Republican primary.

Republican defensive fights

• Florida. Republican Senator Rick Scott is running for reelection in the Sunshine State. The Democrats recruited a former Congresswoman to run against him. Historically, Scott used his substantial wealth to support his political campaigns, giving him an edge.
• Texas. Republican Senator Ted Cruz faces a challenge from Dallas-area Democratic Congressman Colin Allred. 2018, Democrats devoted massive resources to defeat Cruz but ultimately came short.

For Republicans to gain control of the U.S. Senate in 2025, they must win two races. West Virginia will flip Republican, regardless of who the Democrats nominate. Then Republicans need to win one of the seven other senate races, while Democrats must hold all seven or defeat a strong incumbent in an expensive state.


Overview of the fight for the United States House of Representatives
While the Presidential race and battle for the Senate will dominate the political conversation, the campaign for control of the United States House of Representatives will continue. Two big questions hang over this contest: what is the impact of the redistricting action since 2022, and will the Speaker fight impact the campaign?

• Since 2022, three significant actions have happened in redistricting that will impact the composition of the House.
  • The Supreme Court clarified the criteria for drawing racial minority districts, which will likely result in netting three to five seats.
  • North Carolina redrew its congressional map, with the likely result being that Democrats lose three to four seats.
  • The New York Supreme Court ruled that the state must redraw its Congressional districts and follow the process. Republicans gained four seats in 2022, which may now be redrawn to favor Democrats.
• From a campaign perspective, the main concern regarding the Speakership fight is the impact on fundraising heading toward election day. For most of 2023, the National Republican Congressional Committee lagged behind the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee but outraised them by $1.5 million in November.  

That wraps up the TRC Nexus 2024 overview of the national political landscape. America is certainly in for an exciting year politically.

Thank you for joining our discussion ahead of the 2024 General Election. Tomorrow, TRC Nexus will discuss what is going on in North Carolina politics.