First look at campaign finance for the 2024 election

Happy Saturday morning. Today, we’re reviewing the latest campaign finance reports. This is our first opportunity to observe candidate viability as we approach 2024.

One big caveat: U.S. House maps and General Assembly districts will be redone ahead of the candidate filing deadline this December. Additionally, some statewide candidates announced after the June fundraising deadline so there was no campaign finance data to analyze.

Governor 

Current Attorney General Josh Stein has the 2024 Democratic race for governor all to himself  right now, and he’s bringing in the money. Stein has raised more money, and has more cash on hand, than the three leading Republicans combined. Unless a credible Democratic challenger emerges, Stein can keep hoarding his cash until the general election campaign begins in earnest.
 
On the Republican side, Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson leads the field in fundraising, and political insiders view him as the prohibitive frontrunner. Robinson brought in nearly $2.3 million, but spent $1.3 million, a high burn rate.
 
State Treasurer Dale Folwell technically reported more than $1 million raised, but most of that came from a personal loan. Former Congressman Mark Walker raised $553,714 after joining the race six weeks before the filing deadline. Walker is coming off a recent statewide primary (for U.S. Senate) in which he earned less than 10% of the vote.
 
Assuming Stein continues to bring in large sums, Robinson, or whomever the Republicans nominate, will need substantial support from national groups to remain competitive in the general election.
 
In 2020, the Republican Governors Association spent $5 million to boost Dan Forest, and in 2016 the group spent $6 million to boost Pat McCrory. That will not be enough to move the needle in 2024. Many expect the total spending in the North Carolina gubernatorial race to exceed $100 million.
 
Whoever wins will face the perennial thorn in the side of North Carolina governors: a smart and strategic legislature with broad institutional heft.
 
North Carolina governors are among the weakest in the country in terms of power dynamics, and it’s not entirely a question of partisanship. Recall that North Carolina’s last Republican governor sued the Republican-led legislature over separation of powers.
 

Supreme Court

The Supreme Court seat held by outgoing Democratic Justice Mike Morgan will be open in 2024.

N.C. Court of Appeals Judge Jefferson Griffin, a Republican, is the only announced candidate. He raised close to $450,000 in the first half of the year. Many suspect N.C. Court of Appeals Judge Allison Riggs will be the Democratic nominee. She raised a little over $67,000 and has about $60,000 cash on hand. In 2018, national organizations, including one led by former U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder, poured money into supporting Anita Earls, who won. Shortly thereafter, Holder’s group funded a redistricting lawsuit that Earls heard.
 
Regardless of the outcome of this race, Republicans will hold a majority on the high court through 2028 barring unforeseen resignations.
 

Open Council of State Races

As of now, North Carolina has four open statewide Council of State races: Lieutenant Governor, Labor Commissioner, Treasurer, and Attorney General. 

Lieutenant Governor

On the Democratic side, state Sen. Rachel Hunt, the daughter of former Gov. Jim Hunt, took a large fundraising lead in her run for Lieutenant Governor, demonstrating that the Hunt political machine can still raise money. Hunt will almost certainly be the Democratic nominee if current trends hold.
 
Hal Weatherman, former campaign manager for Dan Forest, led the Republican side in fundraising. Former state Senator Deana Ballard entered the race after the fundraising deadline but is expected to make a strong showing.
 
The Lieutenant Governor’s race traditionally attracts a large field. In 2020, Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, who had never held political office before, beat out the sitting Republican Superintendent of Public Instruction and other state elected officials while spending less than $200,000.
 

Labor Commissioner

Current Republican House Whip Jon Hardister leads the field in the race to succeed outgoing Labor Commissioner Josh Dobson, who endorsed Hardister. Political observers consider him the clear frontrunner for a post with tremendous import to the business community.
 
Still, former Labor Commissioner Cherie Berry endorsed first-time candidate Republican Luke Farley, who announced his campaign shortly before the fundraising deadline. It may be worth checking back on him once reports come out in January 2024.
 
Charlotte City Council member-at-large Braxton Winston is the only announced Democrat running so far, but his low cash on hand raises concerns about the viability of his candidacy. 
 

Treasurer

With current State Treasurer Dale Folwell running for Governor, two state House representatives from Charlotte are running for the position. 

John Bradford currently leads Wesley Harris in fundraising, in part because he loaned his committee $250,000. Bradford is a local business owner, and Harris has a PhD in economics. This race is likely to be competitive, though Bradford has quite a bit more cash on hand right now.
 
North Carolina’s treasurer is responsible for one of the largest managed pension funds in the country.
 

Attorney General

Fundraising reports for the Attorney General race are not particularly insightful because the likely Republican nominee, Rep. Dan Bishop, announced after the deadline, and Rep. Jeff Jackson, the leading potential Democratic candidate, has not made a decision.
 
Upon entering the race, Bishop quickly secured both the Club for Growth endorsement (which proved critical for Ted Budd in 2022) and the Republican Attorneys General Association endorsement (the main party committee that supports Republican Attorney General candidates). Bishop raised $1.9 million in the last election for his noncompetitive congressional seat in 2022. He will almost certainly be the Republican nominee if current trends hold.
 
Many expect current Rep. Jeff Jackson to run for the Democratic nomination for Attorney General if his congressional seat is redrawn less favorably. While in D.C., Jackson made a name for himself by posting videos on Tik Tok and has a well-established small-dollar donor network. Aside from the gubernatorial race, this will likely be the most well-funded contest.
 
North Carolina has not elected a Republican attorney general since 1900.

 
Incumbent Council of State Races
 

Here is the fundraising status for the four Council of State races that will likely feature an incumbent.

 
NC Superintendent of Public Instruction

Republican Catherine Truitt announced her intention to seek reelection and reported over $160,000 cash on hand halfway through the year. There is some speculation that an online activist may challenge Truitt for the Republican nomination, and attempt to outflank her from the right. 

State Auditor

 
After a well-publicized hit-and-run scandal, Democratic State Auditor Beth Wood announced her intention to run for reelection. However, recent campaign data does not show any fundraising activity. She has just $56.21 cash on hand. Republican Charles Dingee currently leads the fundraising race largely due to a $55,000 loan to himself.
 

Secretary of State

Democratic incumbent Elain Marshall will likely seek reelection and leads the race with her current cash on hand. In 2020, Marshall defeated a largely self-funded Republican, E.C. Sykes. Marshall has held the post since 1997, which gives her a strong advantage in what is normally a sleepy, low-dollar affair.
 

Agriculture Commissioner

Current Republican Commissioner of Agriculture Steve Troxler has not announced a reelection campaign, and his fundraising activities reflect that. As North Carolina’s top vote-getter, Troxler would not likely face serious opposition if he does run again. If Troxler decides to retire, many suspect state Sen. Brent Jackson will leave his position as Chairman of the Senate’s Agriculture Committee and run for Commissioner of Agriculture. No Democrat has announced a campaign for Troxler’s seat.
 

Insurance Commissioner
Current Republican Commissioner of Insurance Mike Causey is widely expected to run for reelection. He does hold a slight advantage in cash on hand over primary opponent Robert Brawley, but the race is still open. Causey has maintained somewhat icy relationships with many public officials and regulated communities – Most recently, he waged a very public opposition campaign against legislation involving Blue Cross Blue Shield despite broad support in the General Assembly for the measure. ***Thank you for joining us today to review the recently released campaign finance data, we will provide an update once the next round of campaign finance data is released in January 2024.   Candidate filing is five months away, and North Carolina will have new Congressional and Legislative districts in the coming months for the 2024 election.