2024 guide to North Carolina Elections

Good morning

Today, we will provide a brief overview of the North Carolina political landscape ahead of the 2024 general election. Last year, we had a way too early political prediction, but mail ballots go out for the March 5th primary on January 19th. Voting for the primary starts in less than a month for several races that will add new leaders to North Carolina politics.

Congressional contest

With no U.S. Senate race this year, the focus will be on North Carolina’s congressional races. This year North Carolina has five open congressional seats with no incumbent running, one of the openings was created by Rep. Patrick McHenry’s decision to retire after 20 years, Rep. Dan Bishop decided to run for Attorney General, and three Democratic Representatives declined to run for reelection. Here is a brief overview of the five open congressional races.

• District 6: Our analysis shows this district favors Republicans by 15 points, so naturally, there is now a crowded Republican primary with six candidates. It is hard to determine a front-runner between former Congressman Mark Walker, who was soundly defeated in the 2022 Republican Senate Primary, former candidate Bo Hinds, and Addison McDowell, who received a Trump endorsement before he announced his campaign. Jay Wagner, Christian Castelli, and Mary Ann Contogiannis are also running in the Republican Primary.
• District 8: The new district favors Republicans by 17 points, so six candidates joined the Republican primary. As with the 6th district, it is hard to determine a front-runner between former candidate Mark Harris, former candidate Leigh Brown, and N.C. Rep. John Bradford III. We will need further polling data to clarify the nature of this race. Justin Dues, Chris Mapels, Allan Baucom, and Don Brown are also running in the Republican Primary.
• District 10: With Congressman McHenry’s retirement, five Republicans jumped in the primary to replace him. Some speculate that former Green Beret Pat Harrigan may be the front runner, but he ran for Congress in 2022 in a Charlotte district and some may tag him as a carpet bagger. Diana Jimison, Brooke McGowan, and N.C. Rep. Grey Mills are also running in the Republican primary.
• District 13:  Our analysis shows the new district favors Republicans by 15 points. 14 Republicans jumped in the primary; with this many candidates in such a brief period, anything can happen. Johnson County’s DeVan Barbour placed a strong second in the 2022 Republican Primary and may well already have the support necessary to win an election splitting votes between 14 candidates. We do not have space to list all 14 candidates in the Republican Primary, but Brad Knott, Kelly Daughtry, and Kenny Xu are mentioned as competitive candidates in this race.
• District 14: The reconfigured 14th district favors Republicans by 15 points. Most observers believe North Carolina House Speaker Tim Moore is the front-runner in this race and will win the primary. Jeff Gregory and Lillian Joseph are also running in the Republican primary.
• District 9 and 11: Both incumbent Republican Representatives Chuck Edwards and Richard Hudson face primary challengers. Rep. Chuck Edwards is running for reelection for the first time and will face off against Christian Rudow. Rep. Richard Hudson will face off against Troy Tarazon, while Hudson must also work as the Chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee to help Republicans growth their majority.

Bottom Line: This handful of crowded Republican primaries can be hard to predict with only a couple of months between the end of filing and the primary election. In 2016, small businessman owner Tedd Budd won the primary with 20% of the vote, and in 2022 he secured his first term in the United States Senate. Whatever happens in these primaries, North Carolina will have at least five new Congressional Representatives in 2025.

Turnover on the Council of State
Every four years, the ten statewide offices that comprise the North Carolina Council of State stand for election. After the 2024 election, six of the ten seats will be filled by someone different. Here is a brief overview of the open races:

• Governor: Governor Roy Cooper is term limited after serving two years and there is both a Republican and Democratic primary vying to replace him. Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson is the front-runner on the Republican side, while Attorney General Josh Stein leads the Democratic field.
• Lieutenant Governor: With Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson running for Governor, there is a competitive Democratic and Republican primary to replace him. On the Democratic side, State Senator Rachel Hunt, the daughter of Gov. Jim Hunt, faces off against former State Senator Ben Clack, who was known as a more moderate Democrat while he served in the General Assembly. On the Republican side, eleven candidates are in the Republican primary. In 2020, first-time candidate Mark Robinson secured 32% of the vote in the primary and went on to win in the general election despite his opponent significantly outspending him.
• Attorney General: With Attorney Josh Stein running for Governor, Republicans face their best chance to win the Attorney General race in more than a century. Given the opportunity, Republicans quickly consolidated behind Rep. Dan Bishop and the national groups already committed to spending millions to support his candidacy. On the Democratic side, Rep. Jeff Jackson from Mecklenburg faces off against Durham District Attorney Satana DeBerry.
• State Auditor: After State Auditor Beth Wood’s inglorious exit, the Auditor position is open for the first time in over a decade. Democrats consolidated behind Gov. Cooper’s appointee to replace Wood, Jessica Holmes. The Republicans are locked into a competitive primary with six candidates.
• State Treasurer: With current treasurer Dale Folwell running for Governor, both Republicans have competitive primaries. On the Democratic side, N.C. Rep. Wesley Harris faces off against Gabe Esparza. The Republican side features three candidates, Brad Briner made the biggest start with his last-minute announcement. Briner has served as an investment advisor for decades and may well be one of the most qualified money managers to ever run for the position.
• Labor Commissioner: Halfway through his first term, current Labor Commissioner Josh Dobson decided to retire. Democrats consolidated around Charlotte City Councilor Braxton Winson. The Republicans have a primary, with N.C. Rep. Jon Hardister leading the field in endorsements and fundraising.

Bottom Line: The primary election is March 5th, but whatever the results, there will certainly be new leaders in North Carolina politics in January 2025. 

Thank you for joining us today. Tomorrow, we will take a look back at the top stories of 2023.